[1]王 琪,卢朝祥△,陈晓峰,等.预测6月龄以下骶尾部畸胎瘤良恶性的列线图建立研究[J].陕西医学杂志,2020,49(3):313-316,320.
　WANG Qi,LU Chaoxiang,CHEN Xiaofeng,et al.Establishment of anomogram for predicting benign and malignant sacrococcygeal teratomas below 6 months[J].,2020,49(3):313-316,320.
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预测6月龄以下骶尾部畸胎瘤良恶性的列线图建立研究
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《陕西医学杂志》[ISSN:1000-7377/CN:61-1281/TN]

卷:
49
期数:
2020年3期
页码:
313-316,320
栏目:
临床研究
出版日期:
2020-03-05

文章信息/Info

Title:
Establishment of anomogram for predicting benign and malignant sacrococcygeal teratomas below 6 months
文章编号:
DOI:〖HT5K〗10.3969/j.issn.10007377.2020.03.013
作者:
王 琪; 卢朝祥△; 陈晓峰; 潘永康
西安交通大学附属儿童医院新生儿外科(西安710003)
Author(s):
WANG Qi; LU Chaoxiang; CHEN Xiaofeng; et al.
Department of Neonatal Surgery,Affiliated Children's Hospital,Xi'an Jiaotong University(Xi'an 710003)
关键词:
骶尾部;  畸胎瘤;  诊断;  甲胎蛋白;  列线图;  预测
Keywords:
Sacrococcygeal region;  Teratoma;  Diagnosis;  Alpha-fetoprotein;  Anomogram;  Prognosis
分类号:
R722.1
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
目的:通过对6月龄以下恶性骶尾部畸胎瘤的相关危险因素分析,建立个体化预测6月龄以下骶尾部畸胎瘤恶性风险的列线图模型。方法:收集小婴儿骶尾部畸胎瘤80例,其中成熟畸胎瘤69例,未成熟畸胎瘤11例,统计其年龄、性别、Altman分型、肿瘤体积、体重、血液AFP(甲胎蛋白)结果等临床资料,分析不同指标在判定骶尾部畸胎瘤恶性程度的价值。采用多因素Logistic 回归模型分析畸胎瘤恶性的危险因素; 应用R 软件建立预测6月龄以下婴儿骶尾部畸胎瘤良恶性风险的列线图模型,采用Bootstrap法进行模型验证,根据AUC值和拟合度检验验证模型效果。结果:AFP阳性和肿瘤体积是骶尾部畸胎瘤提示肿瘤为恶性畸胎瘤(P<0.05)的独立危险分析,较大的体重是保护性因素(P<0.05); 列线图模型AUC值为0.918(0.856～0.981),区分度良好,模型的Hosmer Lemeshow检验提示(P=0.902,䥺SymbolcA@ 2=3.431)模型有较好的校准度。最终该模型预测准确度 87.5%。结论:基于肿瘤体积、体重和AFP是否阳性建立的列线图模型,对6月龄前儿童骶尾部畸胎瘤是否恶性有预测作用,应用方便。
Abstract:
Objective:To establish an individualized nomogram model for predicting the malignant risk by analyzing the relevant risk factors of malignant sacrococcygeal teratomas below 6 months of age.Methods:A retrospective analysis was performed on 80 infantile sacrococcygeal teratomas treated in our hospital from January 2012 to December 2018,including 69 cases of mature teratomas and 11 cases of immature teratomas.The clinical data,such as age,gender,Altman type,tumor size,weight,blood AFP were collected and analyzed for the value of different indicators in determining the malignant degree of sacrococcygeal teratomas.Multivariate Logistic regression model was used to analyze the risk factors of teratoma malignancy.R software was used to establish nomogram model for predicting the benign and malignant risks of sacrococcygeal teratomas in infants below 6 months.The Bootstrap method was used for model verification,and the effect of the model was verified according to AUC value and fit test.Results:AFP-positive and tumor volume were independent risk factors suggesting that sacrococcygeal tumors were malignant teratomas(P<0.05),and larger body weight was protective factor(P<0.05).The AUC value of the nomogram model was 0.918(0.856 to 0.981)and the discrimination was good.The Hosmer Lemeshow test of the model suggested that the model had good calibration(P=0.902,χ2=3.431).Finally,the prediction accuracy of this model was 87.5%.Conclusion:The nomogram model based on tumor volume,body weight and whether AFP was positive can predict the malignancy of sacrococcygeal teratoma in infants below 6 months.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2020-03-25